9 dec. 2008

Optimistul BHObama

Viitorul presedeinte al SUA, B.Obama, sau cum spun localnicii, presedintele ales, a avut o campanie electorala foarte dura, cu multe promisiuni, mai ales ce tine de sectorul financiar. A promis sa scoata tara din criza financiara, acum si economica. Nu-i vorba, este un orator excelent, are un vocabular bogat, vorbeste bine si clar, comparativ cu actualul. Dar, cum salvam economia?

Intre timp, si primul plan real.

Sa luam pe rand (pare rau, nu-mi permit sa traduc in romana originalul):

Good morning.Yesterday, we received another painful reminder of the serious economic challenge our country is facing when we learned that 533,000 jobs were lost in November alone, the single worst month of job loss in over three decades. That puts the total number of jobs lost in this recession at nearly 2 million.

Amintim ca a fost si mai rau, dar acum ii tare rau. Deci ne uitam la trecut. Apoi inca un paragraf publicistic si de PR. bla, bla, bla.

But this isn’t about numbers. It’s about each of the families those numbers represent. It’s about the rising unease and frustration that so many of you are feeling during this holiday season .... I know that Americans can rise to the moment once again.

That is why I have asked my economic team to develop an economic recovery plan for both Wall Street and Main Street that will help save or create at least two and a half million jobs, while rebuilding our infrastructure, improving our schools, reducing our dependence on oil, and saving billions of dollars.

Bun plan, cream 2.5mln de locuri de munca.

We won’t do it the old Washington way. We won’t just throw money at the problem. We’ll measure progress by the reforms we make and the results we achieve -- by the jobs we create, by the energy we save, by whether America is more competitive in the world.

Dea-ar fi asa cum se spune. Intrebare este cum o sa facem? Dom senator a uitat de unde a venit? Din Illinois, unde coruptia in sistemul de guvernare nu mai are limite. Datorii la budget enorme, Chicago cu cele mai intalte taxe locale in state, locuri de munca de dragul inimii si statisticii. Ok, sa spunem ca totusi va fi diferit. Presupunem.

... First, we will launch a massive effort to make public buildings more energy-efficient. Our government now pays the highest energy bill in the world. We need to change that. We need to upgrade our federal buildings by replacing old heating systems and installing efficient light bulbs. That won’t just save you, the American taxpayer, billions of dollars each year. It will put people back to work.

Cheltuim inca bani din buget, sa cream niste locuri de munca. In primul rand schimbam toate bechurile, apoi mai vedem, daca mai raman bani, mai facem ceva. Salvam planeta, wow. Mentionez, adaptam cladirile din sectorul guvernametal/public. De unde banii? Din taxe.

Second, we will create millions of jobs by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s. We’ll invest your precious tax dollars in new and smarter ways, and we’ll set a simple rule – use it or lose it ...
Inca mai multe drumuri si poduri. Pare rau ca unca nu s-au trezit ca SUA a ramas complet in spate cu trasportul feroviar, care in esenta nu exista. Totul se transporta cu tracuri, putin eficiente. Construim inca mai multe drumuri. Pe ce bani? Din taxe.

Third, my economic recovery plan will launch the most sweeping effort to modernize and upgrade school buildings that this country has ever seen. We will repair broken schools, make them energy-efficient, and put new computers in our classrooms...

Aceasi poveste, investim doar sa cream locuri de munca acum. Banii se termina, locuri de munca dispar. Mai departe merge culmea.

... Here, in the country that invented the internet, every child should have the chance to get online, and they’ll get that chance when I’m President – because that’s how we’ll strengthen America’s competitiveness in the world.

In addition to connecting our libraries and schools to the internet, we must also ensure that our hospitals are connected to each other through the internet...

Sistemul de asigurare medicala este cel mai slab si ridicol articol in intreaga economie SUA. Despre asta se poate scrie multe, si marunte. Ce facem? Le dam internet mai rapid! Pentru ce? Ca sa comunice doctorii intre ei mai bine, si sa coordoneze paltile mai efectiv, care si asa sunt extrem de exagerate.

Lasam pe seama econmistelor sa comenteze planul strategic, si cum dolarii investiti in asa mod o sa ridice econmie in general.

Nu ca vad lucrurile pisimist, dar ma asteptam la ceva mai profund, si mai radical. La moment vad niste lucruri minore, care necesita doar bani din buget, si care nu ating si nici nu rezolva nici pe de parte starea economica in care se afla tara. Nu se vorbeste de export/import, nu se atinge piata financiara si reglamentarea ei, nu se discuta despre sistemul de asigurari medicale. Probmele care sunt cheia intregului dizastru. Pacat!

Sa asteptam poate vin si noutati mai radicale.

UPD: Comentarii din partea top economistelor

UPD2: Greg Mankiw
Mr. Obama's emphasis on weatherization and alternative lighting reminds me of President Carter's admonition to turn down the thermostat and wear cardigan sweaters. Maybe it works as a short-term sound bite, but it is not much of a long-term policy.

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